Global sports media rights are on track to reach $67.34 billion in 2026, a 9.6% increase from 2025, according to new market projections. The jump is driven by three primary engines: the Winter Olympics in Milan-Cortina, FIFA's expanded 48-team World Cup in North America, and a cluster of major league renewals concentrated in the United States and Canada.

The 2026 figure represents a clean recovery past the pre-pandemic plateau. Global rights peaked at $63.7 billion in 2019, collapsed to $54.2 billion in 2020, and have climbed steadily since. The 2026 number is notable less for the growth rate—single-digit expansion is typical in a non-disrupted year—than for what it reflects about inventory mix. FIFA's decision to expand the World Cup from 32 to 48 teams adds 24 additional matches, each priced separately across 16 host cities. That creates new bracket inventory for broadcasters who previously exhausted their budgets on the knockout rounds. Meanwhile, the Winter Olympics, traditionally a lighter rights driver than its summer counterpart, benefits from Milan's proximity to premium European advertising markets and a time zone that plays cleanly into Asian morning slots.

North American renewals are the quiet foundation. Major League Baseball, the NBA, and NHL are all mid-cycle or entering negotiation windows in 2025-2026, and the baseline expectation among team finance officers is that streaming-platform bidding will push renewal rates 15-20% above current deals. The NBA's next package, likely to close in early 2025, is already being modeled at $75-85 billion over 10 years, up from the current $24 billion structure. That math doesn't show up in the 2026 topline—broadcast checks are amortized—but it changes how networks and platforms allocate future spend, tightening the market for second-tier properties. European soccer rights, by contrast, are flat to down in most markets. The Premier League's domestic package held steady at £5 billion in its last renewal, and Serie A took a small haircut. The growth is in the Americas and in event-based inventory.

The projection also implies a shifting balance of power. Streaming platforms—Amazon, Apple, YouTube—now account for roughly 18-22% of total global spend, up from 8% in 2020. That's not yet a majority, but it's enough to force traditional broadcasters into hybrid models. Comcast's Peacock, Paramount+, and Disney's ESPN+ are all structurally dependent on live sports to justify subscription pricing, which means rights are no longer just a content cost—they're a customer acquisition line item. This changes how deals are structured. Platforms are increasingly willing to pay premium rates for exclusive windows or shoulder inventory (midweek games, early-round playoffs) that traditional networks would have passed on.

What matters for team operators is that the 2026 peak is likely a ceiling for the current cycle. Macroeconomic projections assume stable ad markets and continued subscriber growth for streaming platforms, neither of which is guaranteed. If a recession materializes in late 2025, the 2027-2028 numbers will compress. Several team finance officers have quietly begun modeling renewal scenarios at flat or slightly negative growth, a hedging posture that wasn't present in 2022-2023. Sponsorship revenue, by comparison, is expected to grow 6-8% annually through 2028, making it a more reliable lever for teams whose broadcast deals are locked in at legacy rates.

Watch the NBA's next media package, expected to close by March 2025, for signal on where the floor is. If Amazon or Apple bids aggressively for a third package alongside ESPN and TNT, the $75 billion number holds. If they pass, the league will likely split existing inventory into smaller windows, which cascades into how MLB and the NHL structure their own 2026 renewals. Also worth tracking: FIFA's hospitality and sponsorship revenue for the 2026 World Cup, which is being priced separately from media rights but will indicate whether the expanded format is adding value or just diluting the product. The Milan-Cortina Winter Olympics broadcasting schedule will be finalized by June 2025, and time-slot allocations will show which markets NBC, Discovery, and China Central Television are prioritizing.

The $67.3 billion figure is the market's current best guess, which means it's both a target and a test.