Major League Soccer will award two new expansion franchises in the near term, commissioner Don Garber confirmed this week, marking the league's first formal expansion window since San Diego became the 30th club in May 2023. The move comes as MLS franchise valuations have quietly crossed $500 million in recent private transactions, doubling the $200 million entry fee St. Louis paid in 2019.
Garber's statement arrives seventeen months after the league paused expansion at 30 teams, a ceiling MLS had previously described as firm through 2028. The reversal follows three consecutive years of record gate receipts—MLS reported $1.1 billion in ticket revenue across 2023, up 22% from the prior season—and Apple's willingness to renegotiate streaming economics as subscriber growth exceeded projections. The league now projects 32 teams will optimize conference alignment and preserve Apple's per-match inventory targets through the 10-year broadcast window ending in 2032.
The financial architecture has shifted. Expansion fees now function as balance-sheet events for existing owners rather than growth capital. When LAFC entered in 2018 at $110 million, the league distributed proceeds to fund youth academies and front-office infrastructure. Today's $500 million+ price reflects multiple arbitrage: Atlanta United sold for $550 million in private equity last year at 7.2x revenue, establishing a comp floor that treats expansion slots as discounted acquisitions. Family offices and sovereign wealth funds have entered the bidding process, replacing the local real estate developers who dominated earlier rounds. Las Vegas and Phoenix have submitted preliminary applications; San Antonio revived its bid after securing a $300 million stadium commitment from Bexar County.
The league's calculus is narrow. Two additional teams generate $80 million in additional broadcast inventory for Apple, who pays MLS a per-match rate regardless of viewership under the current structure. Each new market adds 17 home gates, worth roughly $35 million in ticket and hospitality revenue split 50/50 with the league. Critically, expansion absorbs roster churn—MLS added 68 roster spots with San Diego, easing pressure on clubs who had been carrying developmental players on senior contracts to meet minimum squad requirements.
But the scarcity is tactical, not structural. MLS operates stadiums at 89% capacity league-wide, the second-highest utilization rate in U.S. sports behind only the NFL. Adding supply without adding tier-one markets risks diluting per-capita attendance figures that have underpinned sponsor rate cards. The league has not disclosed which cities are under formal consideration, though Garber referenced "markets that applied previously" and "new conversations in the Southwest." Las Vegas remains the betting favorite; Allegiant Stadium is already configured for soccer, and the market delivers 44 million annual visitors.
The timeline is deliberate. Garber indicated the league would finalize selections "before the end of 2025," giving new ownership groups 30 months to deliver stadiums for a 2028 kickoff. That window aligns with MLS's midpoint broadcast negotiation with Apple, scheduled for late 2026, when both parties can adjust per-team economics based on the final footprint. It also lets the league avoid expansion overlap with the 2026 World Cup, where 16 MLS stadiums will host matches and the league expects a $200 million operations lift.
Watch coordinator movements inside MLS headquarters—the league typically assigns a VP-level executive to shepherd each expansion process, and two recent hires from the NFL's stadium development group have yet to receive public portfolios. Also watch stadium financing announcements in Las Vegas and Phoenix over the next 90 days; neither city has a shovel-ready venue, and public funding timelines will dictate bid viability. Finally, track Apple's Q4 earnings call in early February—management has started breaking out MLS subscriber figures separately from general Apple TV+ metrics, a signal the league's performance is being indexed internally.
The $500 million threshold means MLS now prices itself above the NHL's recent expansion entries ($650 million for Seattle, but with full revenue sharing from day one) and below the NBA's last round ($1.5 billion minimum). The league's next move is not whether to expand, but whether the market still believes 32 is the ceiling.
The takeaway
MLS expansion at **$500M+** per team doubles prior entry fees and positions the league as premium North American sports asset ahead of 2026 World Cup.
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