Jeff Passan released his annual free-agent forecast Wednesday, naming Kyle Tucker and Tarik Skubal as the centerpieces of the 2025-26 class capable of crossing $250 million in total contract value. The projection arrives eight months after Juan Soto signed for $765 million with the Mets, resetting the ceiling for position players and creating a new comp tier that hadn't existed when Shohei Ohtani took his $700 million deal last December.

Tucker, the Astros' three-time All-Star outfielder, enters his walk year at 28. Skubal, Detroit's Cy Young winner, turns 28 in November and hits free agency after the 2025 season. Passan's list includes ten players total—among them Gunnar Henderson, Bobby Witt Jr., and Paul Skenes—each projected to command deals north of $250 million based on age, position scarcity, and the league's revenue growth. MLB pulled $11.6 billion in revenue last season, up 8% year-over-year, while the average franchise valuation now sits at $2.4 billion, per Forbes. The Mets sold for $2.4 billion in 2020; comparable teams now appraise closer to $3.2 billion.

The $600 million threshold matters for three reasons. First, it defines the new normal for elite players under 30 with five-plus years of team control remaining. Soto's $765 million was a structural outlier—a 26-year-old hitter with no defensive liabilities and zero injury history. Tucker and Skubal lack that profile but fit the tier below, where contracts in the $550 million to $650 million range become plausible if performance holds through their final arbitration years. Second, it shifts the sponsor calculus. Teams writing nine-figure checks need corresponding revenue streams: kit deals, naming rights, and local media packages that can absorb $40 million to $50 million in annual player cost without eroding EBITDA margins below 20%. The Dodgers' $100 million-per-year SportsNet LA deal allows Ohtani's contract to clear at 14% of gross revenue; mid-market clubs lack that cushion. Third, it accelerates the timeline for private equity entry. Family offices and institutional allocators have started buying minority stakes in MLB franchises—RedBird took 15% of the Fenway Sports Group last year at a $9.3 billion implied valuation—and nine-figure player contracts compress the time between ownership transitions. A $600 million deal locks up 5-6% of a team's enterprise value in a single asset, forcing owners to either refinance or sell secondary stakes to cover payroll.

The next six months will clarify how many teams can credibly bid. Tucker's expected to draw interest from the Yankees, Phillies, and Dodgers, each with payrolls already north of $250 million and local media deals that generate $80 million to $120 million annually. Skubal's market is narrower—lefty starters rarely command position-player money—but the Mets, Red Sox, and Rangers have rotation holes and the balance sheet to write $300 million checks if he replicates his 2024 Cy Young campaign. The Astros, meanwhile, face a decision on Tucker before July's trade deadline: extend him at $400 million to $450 million or trade him to a contender and reset around younger talent. Houston's payroll sits at $241 million this season, third-highest in the league, but owner Jim Crane has signaled he won't exceed the $277 million luxury tax threshold two years in a row.

Watch for extension talks to begin around Opening Day. Tucker's agent, Jeff Berry, typically negotiates in-season, and the Astros have a narrow window before his trade value peaks in June. Skubal won't sign before free agency—Scott Boras represents him—but his 2025 performance will set the floor for starting pitcher deals through 2027. Also watch which teams sell minority stakes before next winter's free-agent class. Private equity firms need 9-12 months to close franchise purchases, and any team planning to bid on Tucker or Skubal will need liquidity commitments locked by September.

The $600 million contract is no longer theoretical. It's a budget line, waiting for the right player to sign it.