Todd Bowles begins the 2026 offseason with his job security in question after Tampa Bay missed the playoffs for the first time since 2022, according to Pro Football Focus analysts tracking coaching vulnerability across the league.

The Buccaneers finished 7-10 in 2025, their first losing season under Bowles and only their second since Tom Brady arrived in 2020. Tampa Bay surrendered 26.3 points per game, ranking 28th in the NFL, a notable regression for a defensive coordinator-turned-head-coach. The offensive line allowed 52 sacks, third-worst in the conference, while Baker Mayfield threw 18 interceptions against 22 touchdowns, a ratio that doesn't survive January.

The timing matters because the Glazer family historically operates on three-year windows. Bowles completed year three. His 24-19 regular-season record and one playoff appearance—a Wild Card exit in January 2024—place him in the category ownership tolerates but doesn't celebrate. The franchise hasn't extended a head coach mid-contract since Jon Gruden in 2007. Bowles is working the final year of his deal with no public conversations about an extension, which in NFL grammar means the conversations are happening elsewhere.

PFF's list typically predicts one or two firings with accuracy. Last cycle, they flagged Ron Rivera and Frank Reich; both were gone by late November. The methodology weighs recent performance, roster talent relative to results, and ownership patience. Tampa Bay checks all three boxes. The roster still carries $185 million in talent on defense, per Spotrac, yet ranked bottom-ten in scoring prevention. That gap—between investment and output—is the kind owners notice when luxury suite guests start asking questions in the third quarter.

The leverage question is assistant movement. Defensive coordinator Kacy Rodgers has already received inquiries from two teams regarding coordinator vacancies, per league sources. If he leaves, Bowles loses the coordinator insulating him from scheme criticism. Offensive coordinator Dave Canales departed after 2023 to Carolina; his replacement, Liam Coen, lasted one season before taking the Jacksonville job. Coordinator churn of that velocity suggests either poor retention or poor hiring, and neither narrative helps a head coach in a contract year.

Watch for how Tampa Bay approaches the April 24-26 draft. If the Glazers allocate first-round capital to immediate-impact offensive line help rather than developmental secondary talent, that's a signal they're trying to save the current regime rather than reset for the next one. Mayfield's deal runs through 2028 at $30 million annually, so ownership is committed to this quarterback window, but not necessarily this coaching staff.

The Buccaneers open organized team activities the second week of May. Bowles will answer questions about job security then, which means he's already answering them now in smaller rooms.